Blackjack SCOREs — True Count Recalculation

How often should we recalculate True Counts?

If we are using a true-counted strategy, we obviously need to recalculate the true count before each bet. But do we need to recalculate it every time we use it? Four sets of sims are displayed here. The red area indicates the SCOREs assuming we only recalculate the TC at the start of the round and then use that count for all playing decisions as well as betting. Green provides results if we also recalculate before making an insurance bet — after we have seen the other players' cards. This number would also be used for playing decisions. Blue indicates the gain from recalculating the TC once before playing your hand taking into account the other players' hands. In these sims, we sit at third base, so all other players have completed their hands. Finally cyan indicates the gain from recalculation when needed after every hit. These sims use 100+ indexes which increases the effect of always recalculating. The player will need to determine whether the added gain is worth the added effort during the play of hands. This chart indicates that a beginner can start by just recalculating at the start of rounds and then calculate more often when more experienced.

Note: These sims have four players. The number of players will also clearly affect the gains.

What about single-deck?

As is usually the case, the single-deck results are very different. Where there was little gain from constant recalculation in the shoe game above, the single-deck game sees a great deal of improvement. Again this is due to the increased importance of playing efficiency in single-deck games and the greater volatility of counts due to the small number of remaining cards. The single player sims were three-player sims. More players would increase the blue gain somewhat.

Note: In all sims on other pages, the true count is always recalculated for every decision.


Sim details

  • Six decks, S17, DAS, LS 4 players, Hi-Lo, truncate, Full indexes, half-deck resolution, penetrations from 26-130 cards cutoff by the card
  • Single deck, H17, 3 players, Hi-Lo, truncate, Full indexes, half-deck resolution, penetrations from 13-26 cards cutoff by the card
  • Four different methods of True Count calculation
  • Two billion rounds each, all sims use optimal betting, full Kelly


copyright © 2007, Norm Wattenberger, All rights reserved