by Norm Wattenberger

Win/Loss/Push Data

How does the count affect win/lose/push rates?

There is a common misconception that you win many more hands at higher counts. Unfortunately this is not true. This chart displays the percentage of hands won, lost and pushed at each count. The win percentage, in red, does slightly increase. However, it only increases from 41.6% of hands at a true count of -18, to 42.7% at TC zero to about 44% at TC +18. The percentage of hands lost does decrease somewhat at the higher card counts. Most of this is offset by an increase in pushes. Much of the increase in pushes is due to an increase in player and dealer twenties due to the excess tens in the shoe. Note that there are very few hands at the high counts.


Another view of WLP by card count.

This is just another view of the same data in a 100% chart. Wins, losses and pushes are stacked and add to 100%. Win/lose/push rate is not the primary cause of the gain in advantage at higher counts. The next page will further discuss the reasons we win more at higher counts.

Sim details

  • Six decks, S17, DAS, LS, 4.81/6, Hi-Lo max indexes, trunc, half-deck


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