by Norm Wattenberger

Card Counting Range of Results

What is the theoretical range of my results?

We have seen that there is much volatility in Blackjack, particularly when counting cards. So what kind of range of results can we expect. Well, we could lose or win every hand. But that's too unlikely to matter. This chart was built with a 90% confidence level. That is, 90% of the time your results will fit within the ranges displayed. 20 bars are displayed, 5,000 hands to 100,000 hands. The range of likely results is shown at each number of hands. So, if you play 5,000 hands, your results will be as displayed in the first bar in the chart given the rules and strategy in the Sim Details section at the bottom of the page.

We can see that we are more likely to win as the number of hands increases. But we also see that the range of possible results expands. With 100,000 hands the range is very large indeed.

Sim details

  • Six decks, S17, DAS, LS, 4.8/6 penetration, 4 players, 1-15 spread, Hi-Lo, truncate, full indexes, half-deck resolution
  • Five billion rounds


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