Blackjack Player Errors
errors affect us?
This is an attempt to show examples of the cost of player errors
when counting cards. Note that these costs are highly dependent
on many variables. Three sets of columns are provided using data
from six-deck, Strip games. The height of the columns represents
The first set of columns displays the effects of betting errors
for a non-cover card counter spreading 1 to 12. The errors are betting
incorrectly by one count. For example, betting the amount for true
count +2 when the count is only +1. The red column gives the SCORE
with no errors. Succeeding columns toward the front increase the
error rate by 1%, or one error per hour playing 100 rounds per hour.
The effect of errors is not enormous because we are still getting
the money out when needed. Just not the optimal bet.
Column set 2 displays the effect of playing errors in the same
manner. The errors are serious, but not idiotic. Insure is reversed,
surrender is reversed, split or double is changed to hit, hit and
stand are reversed. But, a hard 18 up is never hit, an eleven is
never not hit, and a double or split is never taken when it shouldn't
be. Playing errors of this type in this set of circumstances are
far more severe than betting errors.
Column set 3 displays the effect of misestimating the remaining
cards for true count calculation. The green bar shows the effect
of a 10% error and the blue shows the effect of an additional 10%
The same error scenarios in single-deck have a somewhat stronger
impact. This is not surprising as single-deck is more sensitive
to everything. Estimation errors are not provided here as this is
extremely sensitive to the exact method of true count calculation
and would be misleading in a general case.
Again, all of the scenarios on this page are highly dependent on
exact circumstances and this is meant only as a very general example.
- Six decks, S17, DAS, LS, 4 players, 4.81/6 penetration, Hi-Lo,
truncate, Ill18 & Fab 4 indexes, half-deck resolution, spread
- Single-deck, H17, 2 players, 4 rounds, Hi-Lo, truncate, full
indexes, quarter-deck resolution, spread 1-4
- Various errors.
- Two billion rounds each